A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
